The Phoenix metropolitan area remains one of the most watched real estate markets in the country. With sustained population growth, a diversifying economy, and a housing supply that has struggled to keep pace with demand, the data tells an interesting story heading into 2026.
Price Trends: Stabilization After the Surge
After the extraordinary price appreciation of 2020 through 2022, the Phoenix metro market has entered a period of stabilization. Year-over-year price growth has moderated from the 25 to 30 percent spikes seen during the pandemic boom to low single-digit appreciation in most submarkets.
The median home price in the Phoenix metro sits in the mid-$400,000 range, though this number varies dramatically by city. Scottsdale's median is significantly higher, driven by its luxury segment, while areas like Buckeye and Maricopa offer entry points in the low $300,000s. Mesa, Chandler, and Gilbert fall in between, with medians clustering around $450,000 to $550,000.
This stabilization is healthy. The rapid appreciation of prior years was not sustainable, and the current environment gives buyers more negotiating room while still rewarding sellers who price correctly.
Inventory: Still Below Historical Norms
Active inventory in the Phoenix metro has increased from the extreme lows of 2021 and 2022 but remains below the historical average. The market is not experiencing the inventory surge that some analysts predicted as mortgage rates rose. The so-called lock-in effect, where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell, continues to constrain supply.
New construction has picked up some of the slack. Builders in the far West Valley, Southeast Valley, and along the I-17 corridor north of Phoenix have been delivering units, but much of this new supply is concentrated in specific price bands and geographic areas. It is not evenly distributed across the market.
The practical impact is that well-located properties in established neighborhoods continue to face limited competition. If you are selling in Arcadia, central Scottsdale, or central Phoenix, inventory in your segment may be tighter than the metro-wide numbers suggest.
Days on Market: A Normalizing Metric
Median days on market in the Phoenix metro have normalized to roughly 35 to 50 days, depending on the submarket and price point. This is a meaningful shift from the sub-10-day averages seen during the pandemic frenzy, but still indicates a reasonably active market.
Luxury properties above $1 million tend to sit longer, with median days on market often exceeding 60 to 90 days. Entry-level homes under $350,000 continue to move faster, reflecting persistent demand from first-time buyers and investors.
The Rental Market Connection
Phoenix's rental market provides important context. Rents have stabilized after significant increases, and rental vacancy rates have ticked up modestly as new apartment deliveries hit the market. For investors, this means cash-on-cash returns have compressed, making property selection and accurate valuation more critical than during the easy-money years.
The investor segment of the market, which at one point accounted for nearly 30 percent of Phoenix transactions, has pulled back. Institutional buyers have reduced their acquisition pace, though smaller investors remain active in the fix-and-flip and buy-and-hold segments.
What the Data Suggests Going Forward
Several data points provide clues about direction. Population growth into Arizona continues, driven by domestic migration from California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Midwest. Job growth in the semiconductor, technology, and healthcare sectors is adding high-income households. And housing starts, while elevated, are not yet at levels that would create a meaningful oversupply.
The most likely scenario is continued moderate appreciation in the low to mid single digits, with significant variation by submarket. Premium locations with limited buildable land, like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and central Phoenix, are likely to outperform. Peripheral markets with heavy new construction may see more price competition.
Making Sense of the Data for Your Property
Metro-wide trends are useful context, but what matters for any individual property is local comparable sales data. A home in Tempe near ASU operates in a completely different micro-market than a property in Surprise or Queen Creek, even though both are part of the Phoenix metro.
PlainComp provides property-level valuations based on local comp data, weighted by proximity, recency, and similarity. If you want to see how the broader trends translate to a specific address, run a valuation on the homepage. You will get a data-driven estimate with full transparency into the comps and methodology behind the number.